Why Did Clinton Really Win Those Elections?

Yes...Clinton did indeed win two elections. But unlike recent Democrat candidates he was smart enough to have an opposition candidate that could siphon off votes from his Republican rival, in the form of H. Ross Perot. Were it not for Perot, Bill Clinton may not have been elected in 1992, and would have had a far more difficult time in 1996.

The demographic that voted for Perot were middle class moderates that tended to vote Repuclican, and they voted for him in droves in 1992, outpacing votes for Clinton and Bush in the same demographics. In 1992, Perot received 18.9% of the total vote.

At the end of the 1992 election, Clinton received 43.0%, Bush Sr. 37.4%, and Perot 18.9%. Had Perot not even ran, I think that Clinton might have lost to Bush Sr.

(web research) ... (/web research)

I did some research into this, using data from the sites I put in above. I can't conclusively state that Clinton would have lost. I think the election would have been one of those nail biters similar to 2000 and 2004.

Here are my notes:

(notes)

Clinton Pop. Vote: 44,909,326 (43.0%)

Bush Pop. Vote: 39,103,882 (37.4%)

Delta: 5805444

Perot Pop. Vote: 19,741,657 (18.9%)

Total Popular Vote: 103754865

Perot Breakdown:
Liberal 3948331
Conservative 5330247
Moderate 10463078
Breaking down Perot moderates along "all voter" lines:
20% of moderates are liberal: 2092617
30% of moderates are conservative: 3138923

Perot liberals and conservatives given to Clinton and Bush (P1):
Extracting only liberal and conservatives who voted for Perot, and giving them to the liberal and conservative candidate:

P1 Clinton 48857657
P1 Bush 44434129

P1 Delta 4423528

Perot moderates given to Clinton and Bush, breaking them along US wide political demographics (P2):

Extracting moderate voters who voted for Perot, breaking them politically along the same lines as the public at large in 1992 - 20% liberal, 30% conservative:

20% of moderates are liberal: 2092617
30% of moderates are conservative: 3138923

P2 Clinton 47001943
P2 Bush 42242805
P2 Delta 4759138

Breaking all Perot voters between Clinton and Bush (P3):

P3 Clinton 50950274 49% pop vote
P3 Bush 47573052 46% pop vote
P3 Delta 3377222

Of those who voted for Perot:
20% voted liberal
27% voted conservative
53% voted moderate

of all voters (in 1992):
20% are liberal
49% are moderate
30% are conservative

(/notes)

Key: A closer look needs to be taken at the demographics of moderates in 1992 and 1996. Is there data, that, if push comes to shove, show what % would vote liberal, what % would vote conservative?

[Aside: based upon previous posts, modern liberals aren't Liberal, modern conservatives aren't Conservative]

In a few cases, I think there are states that tipped for Clinton that otherwise could have gone to Bush or Dole, but for the influence of Perot. Could this have changed the outcome of either election? At this point I'm not so sure it would have.