Monday, June 06, 2005

What's The Deal With North Korea?

So the DPRK has agreed to come back to the negotiating table, if the US withdraws its threat to impose further economic sanctions.

During the time period that negotiations have been held up, what has transpired:

They've tested at least two nuclear weapons;

They've acquired additional spent fuel rods, which can be used to manufacture plutonium;

The US is having major trade issues with the Chinese, namely 1) the insistence that the Chinese Yuan be valued per the market as opposed to pegged to the US dollar (patently unfair to the US and Europe), and 2) Chinese dumping of textile products on US markets, making even more difficult for US manufacturers to stay in business (much less compete!). China is a major player in the negotiations with the DPRK.;

Kum Jung Il has declared that any economic sanctions would be considered a declaration of war;

China has made it clear that it will veto any UN resoultion to sanction the DPRK.

So where does that leave the US?

The DPRK has insisted that it negotiate directly with the US. This would give it much needed legitimacy with the world. The US has avoided this for exactly that reason, as the DPRK is headed by a totalitarian communist regime, wisely engageing the DPRK with 6 nation talks. The other nations are neighbors to the DPRK, and so their voice at the negotiating table regarding nukes is needed for a lasting settlement.

The DPRK is still belligerent, and the US leadership is starting to cave.

Enter Bill Clinton, who is now urging the US to negotiate directly with the DPRK. This is where the crap gets really deep - Not only do we not want to negotiate directly with the DPRK for reasons mentioned, but Bill Clinton has some nerve intervening, as it was on his watch that the DPRK 1) didn't meet it's side of the bargain (namely to not be involved in nuclear power at all in exchanged for US aid, which included 100's of millions of dollars, AND something like 5 million barrels of oil per day) by building nuke plants anyways and started a nuclear weapons program and 2) Bill Clinton did nothing about it (it wasn't until Bush took office that the word leaked out about DPRK's building nuke plants in spite of the treaty with the US).

My guess is that the US is still sending aid to the DPRK. Bush is too scared to stop, as Kim Il Jung said this would be tantamount to a declaration of war.

Call his bluff, Bush...he won't do anything. If he attacks anyone, the world would give a free pass to a counter attack, and removal of Kim Il Jung. The Koreas could then be united, and a sad chapter of world history finally closed.

If we call his bluff and he does nothing, he'll lose tremendous face with his own people, all but inviting some sort of revolution.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home